Actuary
AI Impact Verdict: Actuary
Risk Level:HIGH (80%)•Timeline:7-12 years (routine modeling); Complex judgment persists
This role faces substantial automation risk. Many tasks are repetitive or data-driven, making them prime candidates for AI replacement. Proactive career planning is strongly recommended.
Actuary faces a 80% AI displacement risk. Workers who don't adapt to AI tools face significant career disruption. The median salary is $125,770, with AI projected to shift compensation by +8%. Our analysis covers timeline, adaptation strategies, and skills that remain valuable.
Source: What About AI? Career Assessment ·
Finance & Accounting
Task-Based Role
Your Risk Without AI Skills
Most workers will need AI skills to stay competitive
AI isn't replacing jobs—people using AI are replacing people who don't
80%
HIGH RISK
What this means: Most workers in this field will need AI skills to stay competitive. Those who learn now will have a significant advantage over those who wait.
Full Replacement
50%probability
Complete job elimination risk
Timeline
7-12 years (routine modeling)
When major changes expected
Replaced By
AI
Primary automation technology
This Job Isn't Going Away—But Who Does It Is Changing
Full automation risk: 50% (chance AI replaces the role entirely)
Risk without AI skills: 80% (chance AI-equipped workers replace you)
This 30-point gap is your opportunity. The role will exist, but it will go to workers who use AI. Be one of them.
Analysis updated February 2026
What Experts Say
"AI will sharpen our tools, not replace our expertise. The profession is expanding into AI governance, model validation, and strategic interpretation — domains that demand more actuaries, not fewer."
AI Impact Overview
This role faces substantial automation risk. Many tasks are repetitive or data-driven, making them prime candidates for AI replacement. Proactive career planning is strongly recommended.
Actuary Salary & AI Impact on Pay
Compensation Overview
$125,770
Median Annual Salary (2024)
$75,240$206,430
10th percentile90th percentile
+8%Upward pressure from AI
Actuaries who master AI model governance, algorithmic validation, and strategic interpretation are commanding premium compensation as insurers invest billions in AI transformation
Source: BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics
Actuary Task Breakdown: What AI Can & Can't Do
AI Can Handle
- Assumption Memo DraftingLarge language models can now draft actuarial assumption memos and summarize meeting notes, reducing documentation time significantly while still requiring human review
- Routine Pricing ModelsAI-powered platforms like hx Renew cut actuarial model build time by 75%, creating 20 new pricing models in nine months with minimal manual intervention
- Data Collection and CleaningMachine learning pipelines automate the extraction, validation, and transformation of insurance data that previously required hours of manual actuarial preparation
Human + AI Together
- Predictive ModelingAI processes vastly larger datasets and identifies non-obvious risk patterns while actuaries design model architectures, validate assumptions, and interpret results in business context
- Claims AnalysisAI analyzes claims data to propose assessments — as Aviva demonstrated with $82M in savings — while actuaries review, modify, and approve outputs for accuracy
- Regulatory ReportingAI automates report generation and compliance checks while actuaries certify results, interpret regulatory requirements, and sign off on reserve adequacy opinions
Uniquely Human
- Model Governance and ValidationEvaluating AI model fairness, explainability, and regulatory compliance under frameworks like the EU AI Act requires actuarial expertise and professional accountability
- Strategic Risk InterpretationTranslating complex model outputs into board-level business recommendations and pricing strategies requires deep industry knowledge and executive communication skills
- Professional Certification and Signing AuthorityRegulatory frameworks require credentialed actuaries to sign opinions on reserves, pricing, and solvency — a legal responsibility that cannot be delegated to AI
Past 3 Years
- 2022: Insurtech companies deployed ML models that priced auto insurance risk more accurately than traditional actuarial tables
- 2023: AI mortality and morbidity models from firms like Lapetus began outperforming traditional life insurance pricing methods
- 2024: Milliman and Willis Towers Watson integrated AI into reserving calculations, reducing actuarial analysis time by 50%
2-5 Year Outlook
- By 2026, AI will perform 70% of routine actuarial calculations, with actuaries focusing on model validation and emerging risk assessment
- 2027: Real-time AI pricing will become standard in P&C insurance, requiring actuaries to shift toward strategic risk consulting
- By 2028, entry-level actuarial positions will decline by 40%, while demand for actuaries who can interpret and govern AI models will increase
Research-Backed Timeline for Actuary
5-10 yearsResearch
Actuarial employment projected to grow 22% through 2034, approximately four times faster than the national average, driven by increasing demand for AI governance and risk quantification expertise
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
3-7 yearsExpert Estimate
AI will transform actuarial workflows from manual number-crunching to strategic model oversight, with the profession expanding into AI governance, explainability, and algorithmic fairness domains
Source: Casualty Actuarial Society
3-5 yearsExpert Estimate
Actuaries must evolve into AI-fluent strategic advisors within the next 5 years, with those who fail to adapt facing role compression as routine modeling becomes fully automated
Source: EY
Adaptation Strategies
- 1Learn machine learning and Python - actuaries who can build, validate, and explain AI pricing models command premium salaries
- 2Develop expertise in emerging risks: climate change modeling, cyber insurance, pandemic risk, and autonomous vehicle liability
- 3Focus on regulatory and compliance aspects of AI in insurance - someone must ensure AI pricing doesn't violate discrimination laws
- 4Build consulting skills to advise executives on strategic risk decisions that require judgment beyond what AI can provide
Companies Already Using AI in Actuary Roles
Aviva2024
Deployed over 80 AI models in claims processing, achieving $82 million in savings in 2024 while actuaries evolved toward oversight, complex judgment, and strategic interpretation roles
Source: McKinsey & Company
Swiss Re2024
Launched Life Guide Scout, a generative AI-powered underwriting assistant built on Azure OpenAI, to augment actuarial underwriting decisions with curated expert knowledge in natural language
Source: Swiss Re Press Release
Career Pivot Options for Actuary
Lower-risk roles that leverage your existing skills
Financial Analyst
Shared quantitative modeling and risk analysis expertise, with actuaries and financial analysts often collaborating on enterprise risk management
Skills gap:
Insurance Underwriter
Closely linked in the insurance value chain, with actuaries setting the risk models and pricing frameworks that underwriters apply to individual cases
Skills gap:
Deep Dives: Podcasts & Guides
GuideFeb 2026
Wall Street’s AI Invasion — What It Means for Everyone in Financial Services
BNY Mellon deployed 134 “digital employees” alongside 48,000 humans and empowered 20,000 workers to build AI agents. We break down the reversed apprenticeship, the flattening career ladder, and what every finance professional should do right now.
Read Guide
PodcastFeb 2026
Opus 4.6 vs GPT 5.3 — We Tested Both
Anthropic and OpenAI both dropped major models. Here's what it means for workers.
Listen Now
PodcastFeb 2026
AI Agents Are Replacing Your Coworkers
McKinsey has 25,000 AI agents. OpenAI Frontier. Anthropic Agent Teams. What it means for you.
Listen Now
JAAI Strategy Consultant • Updated 2026
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