What Is AI Displacement Risk?
The metric that reveals how much harder your job becomes when competitors adopt AI — and what you can do about it.
AI displacement risk measures how much harder a job becomes when competitors adopt AI tools. Unlike replacement risk (full job elimination), displacement risk captures the competitive pressure workers face if they don't adapt. The FAIR Framework by What About AI? scores 291 jobs across 26 industries on both dimensions.
Source: FAIR Framework, What About AI?
JAThe Two Risks Every Worker Faces
AI threatens jobs in two distinct ways. Understanding the difference is the first step to protecting your career.
Displacement Risk
Avg: 61.4%
“Will AI-skilled competitors outperform me?”
Displacement risk captures how much your job changes when AI enters the picture. Even if your role isn't eliminated, colleagues and competitors using AI tools can produce more work at higher quality in less time. If you don't keep pace, you're displaced — not by a machine, but by a human-plus-machine team.
Replacement Risk
Avg: 43.6%
“Will my entire job be eliminated?”
Replacement risk measures the probability that AI fully eliminates a role. This is what most people fear — the robot taking your job entirely. While real for some roles (data entry, telemarketing), full replacement is far less common than partial displacement. Most jobs transform; they don't vanish.
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The Displacement-Replacement Gap
Across 291 jobs, displacement averages 61.4% while replacement averages only 43.6%. This 18-point gap is the central insight of the FAIR Framework: most jobs will be transformed by AI, not eliminated. The real threat isn't losing your job to a machine — it's losing it to a person who uses AI better than you do.
The Five Risk Tiers
Every job scored by the FAIR Framework falls into one of five tiers based on its displacement score.
Immediate action required. AI can already perform the majority of core tasks in these roles. Workers without AI skills are being actively displaced.
Example: Data Entry Clerk (98% displacement)
Urgent upskilling needed. AI-augmented competitors have a significant edge. These roles will transform substantially within 2-3 years.
Example: Office Manager (80% displacement)
Meaningful competitive advantage for AI adopters. Core human skills remain essential, but AI handles an increasing share of routine tasks.
Example: Fundraising Manager (65% displacement)
Some tasks are AI-automatable, but core competencies require human judgment, physical presence, or deep domain expertise.
Example: Legal Mediator / Arbitrator (45% displacement)
Minimal competitive pressure from AI. These roles are deeply human-centric, requiring physical dexterity, emotional intelligence, or unpredictable environments.
Example: Fine Artist / Painter (28% displacement)
Distribution of 291 Jobs Across Risk Tiers
How AI Displacement Risk Is Calculated
The FAIR Framework (Futurist-Informed AI Risk) synthesizes six independent data sources into a single displacement score for each job.
Futurist Predictions
Curated predictions from leading AI researchers and futurists, filtered for those with 90%+ historical accuracy. Includes assessments from Geoffrey Hinton, Kai-Fu Lee, and others on specific job categories.
Industry Adoption Data
Real-world AI adoption rates by industry, measuring how quickly companies are deploying AI tools. Higher adoption rates mean faster competitive pressure on non-adopters.
AI Capability Testing
Hands-on testing of current AI systems (GPT-4, Claude, Midjourney, etc.) against actual job tasks. Measures what AI can do today, not theoretical future capabilities.
Economic Research
Peer-reviewed findings from Goldman Sachs, McKinsey, the World Economic Forum, and academic institutions on job automation potential and labor market impacts.
Historical Patterns
How previous waves of automation (industrial revolution, computerization, internet) affected similar job categories. History shows consistent patterns in which roles transform vs. disappear.
Task-Level Decomposition
Each job is broken into its component tasks, and each task is scored independently for AI automability. The job's overall score reflects the weighted sum of its task scores.
What Modifies Your Personal Risk
The base displacement score is for the job title. Your individual risk is adjusted by six personal factors.
AI Tool Adoption
Largest factor — up to 15% reductionWorkers who actively use AI tools in their daily workflow see the biggest risk reduction. This is the single most impactful thing you can do. If you're already using ChatGPT, Claude, Copilot, or industry-specific AI, your effective displacement risk drops significantly — because you're no longer the one being displaced.
Years of Experience
Senior professionals carry institutional knowledge, client relationships, and judgment honed over decades. AI can replicate information but not wisdom. Workers with 15+ years of experience typically see a modest risk reduction, as their value lies in pattern recognition and decision-making that AI supplements rather than replaces.
Education Level
Advanced degrees in specialized fields provide some buffer, particularly in research, medicine, and engineering. However, education alone is not protective — a PhD in a highly automatable field may face more displacement than a tradesperson. What matters is how the education translates to AI-resistant competencies.
Work Environment
Remote desk work is more susceptible to AI displacement than on-site, hands-on work. If your job requires physical presence — a construction site, a hospital floor, a restaurant kitchen — AI has fewer vectors to displace you. Digital-first roles face higher competitive pressure from AI-augmented workers.
Management Level
People managers and strategic decision-makers face lower displacement risk than individual contributors in the same field. Leadership requires empathy, negotiation, and stakeholder management — competencies where AI assists but doesn't replace. Directors and VPs typically see a meaningful risk reduction.
Human-Centric Classification
169 of 291 jobs are classified as human-centric — roles where empathy, physical touch, creative expression, or unpredictable human interaction is core to the work. These roles have a built-in resilience factor. A therapist, a firefighter, a performing artist — these roles resist displacement by their very nature.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is AI displacement risk?
AI displacement risk measures how much harder your job becomes when competitors adopt AI tools. It quantifies the competitive pressure you face if you don't adapt. The FAIR Framework by What About AI? scores 291 jobs across 26 industries, with an average displacement risk of 61.4%. Unlike replacement risk, displacement risk doesn't mean your job disappears — it means you lose ground to AI-augmented competitors who can work faster, cheaper, or at higher quality.
What is the difference between AI displacement and AI replacement?
Displacement measures competitive pressure — how much harder your job becomes if you don't use AI tools. Replacement measures the probability of full job elimination. Across 291 jobs, the average displacement score is 61.4% while the average replacement score is only 43.6%, a 18-point gap. This means most jobs won't disappear, but workers who don't adapt will be outperformed and eventually displaced by those who do.
How is AI displacement risk calculated?
The FAIR Framework (Futurist-Informed AI Risk) synthesizes six data sources: curated futurist predictions filtered for 90%+ accuracy, industry-level AI adoption data, hands-on AI capability testing, economic research from Goldman Sachs, McKinsey, and the World Economic Forum, historical automation patterns, and granular task-level decomposition of each role. Each job receives two independent scores on a 0-100 scale: displacement (competitive pressure) and replacement (job elimination probability).
What is a good AI displacement risk score?
Lower is better. Scores fall into five tiers: LOW (0-29, 15 jobs) means minimal competitive pressure from AI. MODERATE (30-49, 77 jobs) means some tasks are AI-automatable but the core role is secure. ELEVATED (50-69, 80 jobs) means significant competitive advantage for AI-adopters. HIGH (70-84, 73 jobs) means urgent need to upskill. CRITICAL (85-100, 46 jobs) means the role is being fundamentally transformed by AI right now.
How can I reduce my AI displacement risk?
The single most impactful action is adopting AI tools in your current workflow — the FAIR Framework's personal calculator shows this can reduce your individual risk by up to 15 percentage points. Other factors include years of experience (senior workers have more institutional knowledge that AI can't replicate), education level, management responsibilities, and whether your role involves human-centric skills like empathy, physical presence, or creative judgment. Take the personalized quiz at whataboutai.com/quiz to get your adjusted score.
Where can I check my AI displacement risk?
What About AI? offers two ways to check your risk. First, browse the full job database at whataboutai.com/jobs to find your specific role among 291 scored jobs across 26 industries. Second, take the personalized career quiz at whataboutai.com/quiz, which adjusts the base score for your job using personal factors like AI adoption, experience, education, and work environment to give you a customized displacement risk rating.
Find Your Personal AI Displacement Risk Score
These are aggregate definitions and scores. Your individual risk depends on your experience, AI adoption, and role specifics.
Scores calculated using the FAIR Framework — Futurist-Informed AI Risk methodology by James Perkins.